Letter: Blurred Times
New York, July 11, 2016
Dear Friends and Colleagues,
Exante Advisors and Exante Data are both six months old today. It has been an incredible ride so far, and we would like to thank everybody who have helped us get off to a flying start, including clients, vendors, independent analysts, press, and friends. It has been touching, how many of you have reached out, simply to be helpful in some way.
First, a quick comment on Brexit and Europe, and then a few paragraphs on our business and next steps.
The last two weeks have been a bit of a blur. Brexit did not come as a complete surprise to us. We thought (see previous letter) that the immigration issue would make this vote different (less guided by ‘rational economic arguments’). Nevertheless, there has been plenty to analyze in the aftermath of the vote. Would Brexit trigger a new wave in the Euro-crisis? Would we see ‘referenda contagion’? Would the GBP experience a currency meltdown? At this point we would classify the situation as one of extreme political risk, although not a systemic crisis in the Eurozone as we experienced in 2010-2012. The fact that Spanish and Italian bonds continue to trade in a robust fashion is very important in this regard. But the question is whether it will stick. Non-centrist forces are on the rise in Europe, and could take over in Italy if Renzi looses the constitutional reform referendum in October. There is plenty of political risk on the horizon in Europe (and elsewhere). A blurry picture, to say the least.
Turning to our business. In addition to our discretionary macro strategy work (within Exante Advisors), we have made considerable progress in terms of developing data and analytics infrastructure (within Exante Data). We will soon be launching a data focused service that aims to provide real-time color on Chinese capital flows. Meanwhile, we are doing final testing of a number of FX forecasting tools. And, we are also investing heavily in proprietary labor market indicators. There are plenty of projects to work on.
In relation to our Exante China Flow product, if you are interested in testing the preliminary version of the product, let us know at this link. We plan to provide access to a small group of early adopters.
Moreover, we are very interested in connecting with real money clients who are active in the CNY bond market or considering adding CNY fixed income exposure to portfolios in the future. Tracking the involvement of international real money in the CNY market is important to understanding the overall capital flow picture, and we will be doing a regular survey in this area. If you are interested in participating, please let us know at this link. We will obviously provide the survey results to those who participate.
Finally, I just wanted to say thanks again for all the support. It is all the constructive partnerships that make this really fun. We learn a lot from the feedback we get, and it is an reinvigorating experience overall (even if Brexit made it a bit of a blur in the last two weeks). We have a clear vision that data is revolutionizing trading and investing, and we are excited to launch a number of unique data driven products in coming months.
Founder and CEO
Exante Data LLC