Letter (Q1 2023): Big Macro Shocks Keep Coming…
Dear friends and colleagues,
It has been a crazy busy time. A continued stream of macro shocks has hit global financial markets since 2020, and we have been 100% focused on serving our clients. As such, we have not kept in touch with our broader network as much as we would like. But we will try to do better in 2023, and provide regular updates on key developments in markets as well as within Exante Data.
Key Macro Themes/Shocks in Q1
The year started with a focus on China reopening. We have aggressively been using alternative data to stay ahead of the consensus on this important theme, which we have been tracking all the way back to November.
In February, the focus shifted to surprising resilience of the US economy, and we continue to monitor a broad set of indicators for the US labor market, as well as use our network of specialist contacts, to have a timely read on the situation. Interestingly, and less discussed, this theme also has a European variant, as lower energy prices are generating a boost to both consumer confidence and confidence in the services sector (a non-consensus topic we have been zoomed in on).
We have also been paying attention to the broader global theme of monetary policy differentiation. In Sweden, the new Riksbank Governor is playing into this. In Canada, different inflation dynamics are creating a unique setup, and in EM, we are observing differentiation along the dimension of debt leverage. This has been a powerful force driving asset returns.
And then in March, another fresh shock hit. Escalating banking tensions have dominated, and we have aggressively covered the global impact since March 10. We have used data (including new daily proxies of deposit flight), thematic research and frequent client calls to stay on top of a fluid situation. Our experience is that in times of crisis Exante Data delivers the most value; and we will try to live up to this reputation in 2023, as we did in 2020. In this context, we also note that our new MarketReader™ technology has proved invaluable early signals about unusual movements in single names within the US financial sector (see video on this link).
A Few Words on the Exante Data Team
It is the dedication and passion of the Exante Data team that allow us to deliver world-class service 24/7. Our European team has grown to four, and we have promoted Chris Marsh to Chief Economic Advisor, and Martin Rasmussen to Senior Strategist, both based in London. In New York, we have promoted Wouter Jongbloed to Chief Operating Officer, while still retaining his focus on global geopolitics. Meanwhile, we are looking to add another Python Economist to the team, following the success of our initial hire with that title (reach out to firstname.lastname@example.org).
We are proud to serve the world’s most sophisticated investors. And we will continue to push ahead with a combination of proprietary data and human conceptual thinking, which we think is the superior formula for alpha generation and risk management.
Thanks for the continued support.
All the best,
Founder and CEO Exante Data Inc.
For more information about Exante Data content in the public domain
Check out our Substack: Money Inside and Out
The most popular piece in Q1 was “Lessons from the Great Reflation”, which was quoted heavily in Martin Wolf’s Financial Times essay.
3/20 – BLOOMBERG/ NEWSROOM – On the fall-out of the CS Bail-Out / Take-Over